Friday, September 11, 2015

SEC+3: Week Two



With "warm-up week" for most of the SEC teams finished, a few teams begin their conference schedule here in week two. Here's this week's picks:

Jacksonville State vs. (6) Auburn

Godsey: Auburn will be looking to work out the kinks on both sides of the ball before starting conference play next week. I want to see more of the Auburn air attack this week and allow Jeremy Johnson to get more comfortable in the pocket. 

The Pick: Auburn 55 Jacksonville State 14

Griff: Auburn quarterback Jeremy Johnson gets a nice tune-up before the Tigers start SEC play next week in Baton Rouge against LSU.

The Pick: Auburn 52 Jacksonville State 3

Fresno State vs. (17) Ole Miss

Godsey: Both teams bring balanced offenses to table, but they are far from equal. Fresno State will have to avoid turnovers this week if they want to keep this game close. Ole Miss won't quite put up the 76 points like last week, but the Rebels will beat the 30-point spread.

The Pick: Ole Miss 58 Fresno State 17

Griff: Fresno State presents the Rebels with a bit more difficult game, but Ole Miss proved to us last week that they mean business after drumming UT-Martin by 73 points. That being said, the Rebels roll for their second-straight week.

The Pick: Ole Miss 49 Fresno State 24
 
(10) Georgia vs. Vanderbilt 


Godsey: Vanderbilt beat themselves last week with 3 turnovers. They'll try to get back on track this week as they host Georgia. Vanderbilt won't be able to stop the run, and Georgia wins big.

The Pick: Georgia 42 Vanderbilt 13

Griff: Vanderbilt looked improved on defense last week, but their offense still isn't nearly as efficient as they need to be. The Commodores traditionally give the Bulldogs a hard time. That being said, I'm picking the game to be somewhat close with the score, but the Bulldogs will flex their dominance in the running game. If the Commodores have improved significantly, we will see a glimpse of it, but Georgia's running game will prove that they've got one of the most (if not THE most) effective running game in the conference.

The Pick: Georgia 37 Vanderbilt 20 

Middle Tennessee State vs. (2) Alabama


Godsey: The Tide looked very impressive last Saturday against a good Wisconsin team. MTSU padded stats last week but won't be able to move the ball as efficiently against the Alabama defense. This would a good time for a receiver to break out and try to fill the big shoes left by Amari Cooper. I don't think the Tide will beat the 35.5 point spread this week, but they'll roll to a heavy victory.

The Pick: Alabama 52 Middle Tennessee State 17

Griff: Derrick Henry looked very good against the Badgers last weekend, and in my opinion, he showed that he's an elite running back in the SEC. Henry impressed me so much, in fact, that I would rank him as the top running back heading into week two of this season. We haven't seen LSU's Leonard Fournette yet, but Henry will show us again this week that he's just as skilled and talented as any running back in the conference, especially against a lower-tier opponent like Middle Tennessee State.

The Pick: Alabama 38 Middle Tennessee State 3
    
Toledo vs. (18) Arkansas

Godsey:  I'm curious to see which offensive scheme Bret Bielema decides to use this season. We know the Razorbacks can run the ball efficiently against most teams they play, but the Hogs racked up over 300 yards through the air last week. Coach B can use whatever he wants to use this week because the Razorbacks will cruise through this game and into the next opponent on their schedule.

The Pick: Arkansas 41 Toledo 14

Griff: Like Godsey said, it was interesting seeing the Razorbacks take care of business through the air against UTEP last weekend, but Bret Bielema's team is trying to adapt their offensive plan after losing one of their top rushers, Jonathan Williams, for the season right before the opener. Even though he was just facing the UTEP defense, Brandon Allen showed off his arm by throwing for over 300 yards with four touchdowns. Toledo isn't nearly as talented as the Hogs, but the Rockets were my pick to win the MAC before the season started. Arkansas allows Toledo to put up more points than many expect, but the Hogs take care of business at the end of the day.

The Pick: Arkansas 45 Toledo 21 

(19) Oklahoma vs. (23) Tennessee

Godsey: This is one game I've had circled on my schedule for quite some time now. Tennessee is looking to avenge a loss to the Sooners last year. The Vols will have to improve their pass defense, as they gave up 433 yards last week to Bowling Green. The winner of this one will probably be the team that scores last.


The Pick: Oklahoma 34 Tennessee 27

Griff: Tennessee will have to find a way to create a solid pass rush against Oklahoma's junior quarterback Baker Mayfield. Mayfield was able to showcase his arm against Akron last weekend, throwing for 388 yards and three touchdowns. The Vols will have to take advantage of the troubles that Oklahoma experienced on third down last week, as the Sooners only converted 4-of-13 third down plays for first downs. If Tennessee wins this game, it will be by the Vols sustaining long drives by running the football, and I don't see it happening.

The Pick: Oklahoma 42 Tennessee 31

Ball State vs. (16) Texas A & M

Godsey: The Aggies looked good against Arizona State last week. I predict many thrown clipboards and ball caps by the Cardinals' coaching staff. Texas A&M is a very fast team but will have to cut down on the turnovers if they want to make it through the SEC unscathed. A&M has their way with the Cardinals in this and wins big.

The Pick: Texas A&M 62 Ball State 10

Griff: Texas A&M was the team that impressed me the most in week one, and after taking care of Arizona State easily last week, the Aggies get an easy tune-up game against Ball State. This game give Texas A&M a chance to spread some reps between Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray, who both played exceptionally well last weekend. The player who impressed me the most, however, was Myles Garrett after he turned in eight tackles, including two sacks. Garrett is only a sophomore this season, and it will be fun to watch him as the season continues. Aggies cruise to an easy victory this weekend.

The Pick: Texas A&M 52 Ball State 13 


East Carolina vs. Florida

Godsey: Florida kicked off the 2015 season by putting up 61 points and over 600 yards of total offense. The Gator defense has improved as well, giving up only 72 yards on the ground and 128 in the air. ECU has been known to upset bigger programs in the past, but that was the past. I believe Florida will light them up quick and set the tempo of the game. While I don't think the Gators are quite ready to dominate the SEC East, I think they win this one easily. 

The Pick: Florida 56 East Carolina 13

Griff: Jim McElwain showed the Gators' faithful the dividends of his offensive scheme, and the Gators were able to keep the fans entertained last weekend. Florida's defense get assigned a more difficult task this weekend with the East Carolina passing game, but the Pirates have lost almost all of their offensive play-makers from last season. I like the Gators, but I still think East Carolina manages to score some points in the swamp.

The Pick: Florida 38 East Carolina 17 

Kentucky vs. South Carolina

Godsey: Both teams come in with a 1-0 record, but that's about all they have in common. The Cocks beat a decent UNC team last week, and Kentucky could have easily lost to Louisiana-Lafayette. The South Carolina defense will win this one, but I'd like to see the offense play loosely and gain some experience. South Carolina beats the 7.5 point spread with a win at home.

The Pick: South Carolina 27 Kentucky 14

Griff: To start, Steve Spurrier has only lost to Kentucky twice in his coaching career, both being at South Carolina. This weekend gives him the opportunity to extend his victories against the Wildcats to 21, which would separate him as having the most wins against any particular team by a head coach in the entire country. To do that, the Gamecocks will have to have a better showing with their passing game this weekend, as Connor Mitch had a tough time last Thursday by completing just 9-of-22 passes against the Tarheels' secondary. Kentucky allowed the Ragin' Cajuns to storm back from a 23-point deficit by running the ball, and South Carolina will have to streamline a running game that got them the "W" last week. I do think that Mitch looks much-improved throwing the football to his inexperienced receivers outside of a Pharoh Cooper, and the Gamecocks open up their SEC schedule with a win.


The Pick: South Carolina 31 Kentucky 21
  
(14) LSU vs. (25) Mississippi State

Godsey: We didn't get to see much of anything from LSU due to a cancelled game last week against McNeese State. Mississippi State brings a balanced offense to the table, and Dan Mullen's offense still has Dak Prescott at its helm. The Bulldogs may have a soft spot in the secondary, so I expect Les Miles will try to expose that as much of possible. LSU always has a decent running game so we'll have to wait and see how much Brandon Harris has improved since the romping by Auburn last year. I don't think that Bulldog defense is going to hold up, and I like LSU in a close one.

The Pick: LSU 27 Mississippi State 24

Griff: Mississippi State had a hard time in their first game against Southern Miss, and the offense was, at times, very sloppy. This is something that the Bulldogs will have to avoid against the Tigers, and LSU will still look sharp on defense, despite the departure of defensive coordinator John Chavis to Texas A&M. I see a couple of late turnovers by Mississippi State ruining their day, along with a large dose of LSU running back Leonard Fournette and the Tigers' running game.

The Pick: LSU 28 Mississippi State 17 

 Houston vs. Louisville


Godsey: The Cougars have some explosive offensive weapons, including a dynamic QB in Greg Ward. He can beat you with his legs or with his arm. However, one man can't win a game, and I don't think Houston will have enough weapons to take down the Cardinals. Louisville looked really good last week, but they made some mistakes early that ended up being the difference in the game. If the Cardinals stay healthy, they will gain experience each week and end up being a force to be reckoned with in the ACC. The Cardinals outgun the Cougars this week.

The Pick: Louisville 38 Houston 24

Griff: The Cardinals made some key mistakes to start the game against Auburn but showed a lot perseverance by getting themselves back into the game. Louisville learns their lesson, and the Cardinals start their game against the Cougars off right and play some quality football on Saturday.


The Pick: Louisville 45 Houston 17

Appalachian State vs. (12) Clemson

 
Godsey: The biggest news for Clemson that came out of last week's win over Wofford is the loss of talented receiver Mike Williams. Sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson will have to find another favorite target to throw to, and he's got some options. Clemson is loaded with athletes, and they'll have to figure out a way to use what they have to fill Williams' place. Appalachian State is as good as they come from the Sun Belt. They have a run-first type of offense along with a very capable air attack. App State, however, doesn't storm the field in Death Valley this weekend.

The Pick: Clemson 45 Appalachian State 17

Griff: The Tigers will look even more polished on offense this week against App, and I honestly think that the Mountaineers won't give Clemson as tough of a game as they faced against Wofford. Clemson will tune-up a slightly inexperienced defense and hang 60 to wow the home crowd.

The Pick: Clemson 66 Appalachian State 21
 

(7) Oregon vs. (5) Michigan State

Godsey: Game of the week folks, don't miss it. Oregon rushed for 485 yards last week versus Eastern Washington. That's a crazy number for any team regardless of the opponent. The Trojan offense is good, but nothing really stands out to me. If you look at just the numbers, neither team has played much defense so far. The Ducks gave up over 400 in the air. Michigan State is going to have to try to exploit that and their defense is going to need to be on point the entire game. They will have to create turnovers and the capitalize if they want to win this game. State is a slight favorite at home, but my favorite is Oregon. The Ducks come out on top in this game.

The Pick: Oregon 42 Michigan State 34

Griff: Michigan State let Western Michigan give them everything they had, and the Spartans will have to play much better against Oregon's explosive offense. I saw Michigan State's trip to Western Michigan as a write-off game, and I know it had to be hard to motivate the Spartans against a weak opponent on the road to open the season. Oregon had the same problem against Eastern Washington, except the Ducks played them at home. Ducks' transfer quarterback Vernon Adams led an excellent offensive effort against his former team, but Oregon won't be able to get past some of the critical turnovers that they'll surrender to the Spartan defense.


The Pick: Michigan State 38 Oregon 31

  As always, thanks for reading! Be sure to follow Griff on Twitter @griffaldo for his updated SEC Power Rankings and The GSL Top 25 poll later this weekend.



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