Friday, September 30, 2016

SEC+3: Week Five Picks



Just one game separates all three of us heading into week five. Here's the standings:

Griff - 42-13
Keister - 41-14
Godsey - 41-14

The SEC had some crazy games last week, and we hope that this week provides the same excitement. Here's our picks for week five:

Alcorn State vs. (20) Arkansas

Keister: Arkansas will get back to their winning after last week's loss to Texas A&M.

The Pick: Arkansas 48 Alcorn State 6

Godsey: These days you can't overlook any opponent, but I think the Hogs will okay this week.

The Pick: Arkansas 45 Alcorn State 7

Griff: This will be a bounce back game for Arkansas after last week’s tough loss to Texas A&M. A good time for Bret Bielema to iron out the wrinkles and prepare for top-ranked Alabama next weekend.

The Pick: Arkansas 52 Alcorn State 6

(23) Florida vs. Vanderbilt

Keister: Vanderbilt will be on the receiving end of a frustrated Gators squad, after Florida's second half collapse last week in Knoxville. A strong running game and a suffocating defense will propel Florida to a lopsided win.

The Pick: Florida 37 Vanderbilt 10 

Godsey: My confidence in the Gators is wavering, but Florida should be able to take Vanderbilt.

The Pick: Florida 34 Vanderbilt 17

Griff:  Florida goes into Nashville looking for a win. The Gators will once again be without Luke Del Rio at quarterback against the Commodores. Vanderbilt will be hungry for a conference win, but Florida’s ability to run the football will make all the difference in this game.

The Pick: Florida 31 Vanderbilt 10

Louisiana Monroe vs. Auburn

Keister: Riding the wave of last week's big win, Auburn will continue to improve on the offensive side of the ball and make the necessary big plays to sit on a lead most the second half. Auburn will lean on another good performance from the defense.

The Pick: Auburn 30 Louisiana Monroe 13

Godsey: Sometimes I like to be wrong when it comes to Auburn, but not this time. I hope the Tigers' points don't all come from field goals.

The Pick: Auburn 37 Louisiana Monroe 13

Griff: Auburn won in the most dramatic fashion possible last weekend. The Tigers will welcome the Warhawks into Jordan-Hare. Auburn had to kick a lot field goals in last week’s win, but I expect the Tigers’ red zone woes to improve against Louisiana Monroe.

The Pick: Auburn 27 Louisiana Monroe 16

(11) Tennessee vs. (25) Georgia

Keister: Two teams that are coming off two very different outings last weekend will square off in Athens. The veteran quarterback play will be the edge Tennessee needs in a tightly-contested game that will go down to the wire.

The Pick: Tennessee 27 Georgia 23

Godsey: This is a big test for the Volunteers in a hostile environment. You can’t get much more hostile than Athens, but the Vols will come out on top if Georgia doesn't put Tennessee into another big hole. Winning a game from a 20-plus point deficit is really hard to do one time, doing it twice is almost impossible.

The Pick: Tennessee 31 Georgia 27

Griff: This Saturday’s only ranked conference game will feature two teams that are on complete opposite sides of the spectrum momentum-wise. Georgia is coming off a 45-14 thrashing in Oxford, while Tennessee played an astounding second half against Florida where the Volunteers outscored the Gators 35-7. Tennessee will be able to control the line of scrimmage against a Georgia offensive line that’s been unimpressive so far this season and will leave Athens with a big conference win.

The Pick: Tennessee 31 Georgia 23

(9) Texas A&M vs. South Carolina

Keister: The Aggies will make quick work of the Gamecocks Saturday highlighted by Myles Garrett and the A&M defensive front seven will overmatch South Carolina's offensive line.

The Pick: Texas A&M 45 South Carolina 20

Godsey: The Aggies are much better than I expected this year. They shouldn’t have a lot of trouble this week, but this is the SEC.

The Pick: Texas A&M 41 South Carolina 31

Griff: This is a bad matchup for the Gamecocks. Kevin Sumlin and the Aggies come to Columbia with a pair of the most talented defensive ends in the country. Those dynamic pass rushers will wreak havoc on a struggling South Carolina offensive line and freshman quarterback Brandon McIlwain. On offense, Texas A&M has one of the best receiving corps in the entire FBS, led by Ricky Seals-Jones and Christain Kirk. Will Muschamp and his staff won’t have an answer on either offense or defense, and this game could ugly early.

The Pick: Texas A&M 38 South Carolina 10

Kentucky vs. (1) Alabama

Keister: Kentucky had an uplifting come from behind victory last week against South Carolina. The heroics and winning momentum won't carry over into Saturday, and this game might be out of reach by the end of the first quarter. The Crimson Tide rolls big again.

The Pick: Alabama 48 Kentucky 17

Godsey: The ESPN Football Power Index gives Kentucky a 2.1% chance to beat the Crimson Tide. This is the type of game where teams slip up, but that won't happen in Tuscaloosa.

The Pick: Alabama 38 Kentucky 10

Griff: Kentucky scored a huge conference victory for the third-straight season against South Carolina last week, but this week the Wildcats will have to travel to Tuscaloosa to play the top-ranked Crimson Tide. Nick Saban is 3-0 against Kentucky and will cruise Saturday to notch his fourth victory against the Wildcats.

The Pick: Alabama 45 Kentucky 10

Memphis vs. (16) Ole Miss

Keister: No Coach Fuente, Paxton Lynch or cool upset story for Memphis this year. Chad Kelly and the Rebels offense will roll Saturday.

The Pick: Ole Miss 42 Memphis 17

Godsey: If there is a game that is circled on the Ole Miss calendar, it’s this one. Memphis has rolled their opponents so far but the teams they’ve faced are not the same caliber as the Rebels. On paper, this will be a good game. Throw that paper out of the window. The Rebels will not lose to Memphis two years in a row.

The Pick: Ole Miss 37 Memphis 20

Griff: This will be a revenge game for Ole Miss, after the Rebels suffered a disappointing loss to Memphis last season. Memphis, however, is a different team this year, and without Paxton Lynch at quarterback the Tigers don’t have enough firepower to stay on pace with Ole Miss. Last year’s game could have been the point of the year where Justin Fuentes found his spot in the national limelight, but Ole Miss will roll over the Tigers Saturday.

The Pick: Ole Miss 48 Memphis 13

Missouri vs. LSU

Keister:  LSU will come out inspired in Coach Orgeron's season debut. While the struggles on offense might continue, the Tigers will expose enough mismatches across the field to come away from Saturday's contest with a conference win.

The Pick: LSU 23 Missouri 14

Godsey: I’m wondering the same thing everyone else is wondering: how will LSU respond to everything that has happened since the touchdown that never was? I imagine it’s been chaotic in Baton Rouge, but I think the fans will pack the house and cheer on their boys. It's time for Fournette to perform like a Heisman Trophy candidate. 

The Pick: LSU 35 Missouri 27

Griff: Missouri’s first visit to Baton Rouge will come at an odd time for Louisiana State, and LSU will play its first game without Les Miles as head coach since 2005. This game will be the primetime SEC matchup and is the second week in a row that LSU plays a team that shares the same mascot. Missouri comes in after demolishing Delaware State in a game that followed a disappointing loss to Georgia at home. We will not know if LSU’s star running back Leonard Fournette will be available until this game starts, and it will be interesting to see how the LSU offense will operate if he’s unable to play. Missouri will come in and play physical with the Tigers up front, but LSU will get an emotional victory in front of the home crowd in Columbia, Missouri.

The Pick: LSU 23 Missouri 20

(8) Wisconsin vs. (4) Michigan

Keister: Streaks are meant to be broken and Michigan's 0-12 streak against top 10 opponents will come to an end Saturday. In what will be a low-scoring defensive battle, Jabril Peppers will come up with a big play on special teams again for the Wolverines.

The Pick: Michigan 20 Wisconsin 17

Godsey: This is a monster of a game! The Badgers are hot right now, but the Wolverines haven’t met a defense that could slow them down. Michigan has not had a tough road so far, and Wisconsin has two wins over top 10 teams. Wisconsin has also proven they can win a big game on the road.  It will be a good game and a close game, but I’m leaning towards Michigan.

The Pick: Michigan 35 Wisconsin 31

Griff: This game will be a huge Big 10 test for Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines. I vastly underestimated Wisconsin last weekend against Michigan State, and the Badgers pulled off an astounding 24-point victory. The animosity created by a venue like the “Big House” in Ann Arbor will be too much, and Michigan’s depth and superior talent will be enough to pull out a hard-fought conference win.

The Pick: Michigan 31 Wisconsin 27

Oklahoma vs. (21) TCU

Keister: Coach Stoops and company have had a rough go in the seasons first two big games. Look for the Sooners to carve through a weak defense Saturday and vent their early-season frustrations on the Horned Frogs.

The Pick: Oklahoma 38 TCU 27

Godsey: It seems like Oklahoma has fallen off the map and out of the picture but don’t count them out yet. The two losses they have are to 2 top fifteen teams, one of them is a top five team. OU QB Baker Mayfield could go over 1000 yards passing this week. I think the Sooners pull of the upset and gets in the mix for the Big 12 title.

The Pick: Oklahoma 43 TCU 31

Griff: “Big Game” Bob Stoops has yet to have his Sooners show up for either of Oklahoma’s big games against Houston and Ohio State this season. The Sooners defense has allowed opposing offenses to score over 31 points in the first three games this season, and this week’s opponent features the sixth-best passing offense in the entire FBS. TCU averages 380 yards through the air, and Oklahoma will have to run the football well to keep the Horned Frogs passing attack off the field. I don’t see this happening, and after this weekend, we might begin to hear grumbles regarding Stoops’ departure.

The Pick: TCU 41 Oklahoma 31

(3) Louisville vs. (5) Clemson

Keister:The two quarterbacks will have the majority of the spotlight on them Saturday while the defenses for both teams will be the real deciding factor. Both quarterbacks will respond well to the moment and have gaudy numbers. A late game turnover will top the scales in Clemson's favor in Saturday's showdown in Death Valley. 

The Pick: Clemson 28 Louisville 27

Godsey: I’m going to make this quick and painless. Louisville is on a roll and cannot be denied this week.

The Pick: Louisville 38 Clemson 33

Griff: This contest has the potential to be one of the best ACC games seen in quite some time. Heisman Trophy frontrunner Lamar Jackson will try to lead the Cardinals to what would be a huge victory in Death Valley this weekend. DeShaun Watson will try to prove that he’s the premier quarterback in the ACC, and these two teams have a chance to put on one the best games that we will see all season. The difference in this game will be Clemson’s defense, which was supposed to be filled with question marks after the departure of a lot of players to the NFL Draft following Clemson’s run to the National Championship game. Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables has had his defense primed and ready for each game so far this season, and I think that if there’s a team that’s able to contain Lamar Jackson and the Louisville offense, it’s Clemson. The Tigers will figure out a way to create turnovers, and in doing so, will find the inside track to the ACC Championship with a huge division win Saturday. I can’t wait to watch this one, and I’m sure any serious fan of college football can’t wait either.

The Pick: Clemson 35 Louisville 31

As always, thanks for reading! Be sure to follow the blog on Twitter @GSL_SECPlus3 and find us on Facebook (facebook.com/GriffinsStartingLineup).




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