Griff's Playoff Projections: Arguing with the committee

 

The first rankings are out, and I agree with the top three spots.

Alabama is at the top, and quite frankly that's where the Tide belong. Nick Saban has this team playing at another level, and this year's team might be the best version that we've seen yet. 

Clemson has had its close calls, but good teams win close games. Really good teams win close games against good teams. Clemson has done its part and added signature wins against Auburn, Louisville and Florida State. Two of those wins came on the road. Tigers are just right for the second spot.

Michigan, like Clemson, has done its part so far. The Wolverines have had an easier path, but Jim Harbaugh's team has showed some eye-raising potential. Every college football fan knows that the big test for Michigan awaits in Columbus on the last week of the season.

All right. No surprises in the first three spots. Let's wait for the committee to talk about Washington.

Nope. Washington isn't pronounced "Texas A&M." Que up awkward squints, heads getting scratched and the occasional "what the (insert expletive)."

But yes, the committee did rank the Aggies in that fourth spot. And I disagree.

Washington, like the three teams ranked in the top three spots, has done its part. The Huskies have carried the weight of the PAC-12 schedule. The Huskies have four critical games left, but hey, Michigan got the benefit of the doubt, right?

Sure, Texas A&M is talented. Sure, the Aggies warrant some attention. And sure, the committee overthought this one.

Why overcomplicate things by putting a team with a loss in? You have a team that's proven itself from the SEC, ACC, Big 10 and PAC-12. The Big 12 did its usual cannibalization of itself with the final two undefeated teams losing this weekend. 

Washington deserves the benefit of the doubt, but the Huskies will have to earn it.

Meanwhile, the Aggies still have three SEC West games on the schedule, including a finale where the Aggies host LSU. LSU plays host to Alabama this weekend, and the Tigers can make things VERY interesting with a win over Nick Saban. 

What else does the Aggies getting the nod from the committee mean? Easy. It means teams with one loss certainly still have hope. Look at Florida, for example. Say the Gators win against Arkansas, South Carolina, LSU and Florida State. If Florida runs this gauntlet, and somehow manages to defeat whichever team goes to Atlanta from the SEC West, aren't the Gators an obvious choice. Apply the same principles to Nebraska and Ohio State, who face each other in Columbus this weekend.

Maybe the committee just wanted to give us something to talk about. After all, having four undefeated teams in the first ranking would've been too easy, right?

Here's how I would've done it:

4. Florida/Texas A&M/LSU/Auburn

The SEC is literally Alabama and everybody else. There's a chance for all three of these teams, but if one is to make the playoff, that team must beat Alabama. One of these teams have already failed, but mathematically we have to include the Aggies.

3. Nebraksa

The Huskers need to beat Ohio State and win the Big 10 Championship.

2. Ohio State

The Buckeyes need to beat Nebraska and win the Big 10 Championship.

1. Louisville

Who benefits most from one of the first four teams losing? The Cardinals do. Louisville has a Heisman Trophy front runner taking the snaps. The big question is: how much does the committee penalize the Cardinals for a close loss on the road to Clemson?

4. Washington

The Huskies have won some impressive PAC-12 games and passed every test so far. I'm sorry, but I just don't agree with a one-loss Texas A&M being ranked in this spot.

3. Michigan

The resident Big 10 team in the top four. The Wolverines have also passed all tests thus far, but one still remains at the end on the road against the Buckeyes in Columbus.

2. Clemson

The Tigers have proved to be the top dog in the ACC by beating the two best teams in the Atlantic, and one of those wins was a come-from-behind win on the road. Turnovers have made the wins a little sloppy, but a sloppy win is better than a well-played loss.

1. Alabama

Perhaps the reason why Texas A&M was picked over Washington was because the Aggies actually led Alabama at the end of the first half. Well we saw what happened in the second half. The Crimson Tide has proven to be on another level, but Nick Saban's team faces possibly its biggest test so far with a huge game in Baton Rouge this weekend.

Maybe I'm just overreacting to the first rankings from the committee. One can only guess how things will play out with this crazy game, but if you're not excited about what the last four or five weeks, then perhaps you're reading about the wrong subject matter.

As always, thanks for reading! Be sure to follow Griff on Twitter @griffaldo.