Thursday, November 11, 2021

SEC+3: Week 11 Picks

 


Week 10 Record: 7-3

2021 Season Record: 72-28


We're headed down the stretch of the 2021 season, and it makes me a little sad now while I type this. It seems like just yesterday, I was like a kid on Christmas Eve prepping for Santa talking about the week one games that kicked the season off in September.

I'd like to take a second and thank all veterans for their service this week. We truly live in the world's greatest country because of the selfless service of our veterans.

I'd also like to thank those that wished me a happy birthday! You guys sure know how to make a guy feel special.

Week 11 kicks off Saturday, and we are now two weeks away from rivalry weekend.

Here's my picks for this week's games. Hope you enjoy!

New Mexico State @ #2 Alabama (-51)

Alabama quarterback Bryce Young comes into this game needing 245 passing to complete his first 3,000 yard passing campaign of his college career. That stat might be a little more exciting to monitor than the actual score in this one. 

The Pick: Alabama 61 NewMexico State 13

Mississippi State @ #17 Auburn (-5.5)

The air raid system employed by the Bulldog offense might come back to bite them in the "you know what" in this game. Auburn looked impressive on defense against a reinvigorated Texas A&M team at home. The Tigers will prevent Mississippi State from getting that elusive sixth win, and the Tigers put bowl game hopes on standby status for yet another week.

The Pick: Auburn 31 Mississippi State 27

Samford @ Florida (OFF)

Florida gets a chance to correct some critical flaws from last week's upset loss against South Carolina. 

The Pick: Florida 55 Samford 16

#1 Georgia (-20) @ Tennessee

An intense SEC East rivalry series renews in Knoxville Saturday. The explosive Tennessee offense led by Herndon Hooker will go against an elite Georgia defense, which ranks first in a lot of defensive categories, including scoring defense. The Vols will have to start fast and keep the foot on the gas, but I don't see Tennessee overcoming the blazing pursuit speed of the Georgia defense.

The Pick: Georgia 34 Tennessee 23

#11 Texas A&M (-2.5) @ #15 Ole Miss

Texas A&M sticks out in my mind as the team that has improved the most during this season. Things were not looking up for the Aggies after a challenging road win against Colorado, but Texas A&M has done a great job at staying competitive. The Aggies level of play last week could allow one to argue that being ranked #11 is too low of a ranking. 

That being said, the SEC West division schedule never allows for a "gimme" game. Texas A&M will have to use a consistent ground game and maintain the physicality on defense that led to win against Auburn last week.

The Pick: Texas A&M 31 Ole Miss 23

South Carolina (-1) @ Missouri

All eyes are on Shane Beamer's Gamecocks this weekend, after South Carolina turned heads in a rout of Florida. Missouri, on the other hand, took a thumping in Athens to the top-ranked team in college football. Both of these teams need wins, but the Gamecock defense will make enough stops in a battle for the Mayor's Cup, which will return to Columbia, South Carolina.

The Pick: South Carolina 24 Missouri 17

Kentucky (-21) @ Vanderbilt

Kentucky has hit a tough stretch of the 2021 schedule, and the Wildcats went from a top 25 contender to not being ranked in a short amount of time. Nothing helps getting a SEC East team back on track, however, like a trip to play Vandy in Nashville.

The Pick: Kentucky 38 Vanderbilt 13

#25 Arkansas (-3) @ LSU

Another classic rivalry is renewed Saturday, as Arkansas and LSU play for The Boot. This used to be a rivalry weekend game, but has since moved to an earlier date on the schedule for both teams. LSU has really played hard for Ed Orgeron, and I expect the Tigers to do the same at home this weekend. That being said, I'll stick with the Hogs here.

The Pick: Arkansas 26 LSU 24

Plus 3 Games for Week 11:

#6 Michigan 20 Penn State 17

#13 Baylor 35 #8 Oklahoma 34

#4 Ohio State 45 #19 Purdue 21

As always, thanks for reading! Be sure to follow me on twitter @griffaldo.

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