Friday, May 30, 2014

NCAA Baseball Regionals: Quick Previews and Picks


It's that time again for the NCAA Baseball Tournament. The bracket has been made, and we're going to take a quick look at each regional and make some picks:

Baton Rouge, LA Regional

1. LSU Tigers(44-14-1)
2. Houston Cougars (44-15)
3. Bryant Bulldogs (42-14)
4. SE Louisiana  (37-23)

LSU will host teams in front an enthusiastic (to say the least) crowd in Baton Rouge. The Tigers are one of the hottest teams in the country currently, coming off winning the SEC Tournament. LSU's offensive power has been proven this season against some of the best pitching in the country in the SEC. 

The Houston Cougars, however, have some firepower of their own. 

The Cougars have one of the best pitching staffs in the country, possessing a collective ERA of 2.20. This is the fourth best ERA in the entire country.

The Bryant Bulldogs will have to go through the best pitching they've faced all season when they take on Houston, but if they can find a way to get on base, they can produce runs. The Bulldogs stole 97 bases during the regular season, which was the eighth best in the NCAA. 

SE Louisiana has played some relevant teams this season, but the Lions were unable to win any of the games. Unfortunately, just making the trip to Baton Rouge will be the highlight of their season.

The Pick:  The LSU Tigers figure out Houston's pitching.


Bloomington, IN Regional

1. Indiana Hoosiers (42-13)
2. Indiana St. Sycamores (35-16)
3. Stanford Cardinal (30-23)
4. Youngstown St. Penguins (16-36)

The Indiana Hoosiers will try to return to Omaha after a run to the College World Series in 2013. Senior pitcher Joey DeNato has led a Hoosier pitching staff that has the third-best ERA in the country at 2.17. 

Indiana State draws a two-seed, but the Sycamores really struggle in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, not winning a single game.

The Stanford Cardinal are the team to watch carefully if you're a Hoosier fan. This club has won eight of their last ten games, but they haven't been able to remain consistent.

Then there's the Youngstown State Penguins, who are possibly surprised at themselves by making the tournament. The Penguins were able to win the Horizon League Tournament, clinching an automatic birth into the NCAA Tournament. Youngstown State is the only team in the tournament that hasn't won more than 25 games this season.

The Pick: The Indiana Hoosiers' pitching will be too much for Stanford's bats.


Charlottesville, VA Regional

1. Virginia Cavaliers (44-13)
2. Arkansas Razorbacks (38-23)
3. Liberty Flames (41-16)
4. Bucknell Bison (30-19-1)

The Virginia Cavaliers host what's going to be a tougher regional than most will expect. One weapon the Cavaliers have in their corner is All-American lefty Nathan Kirby. Kirby finished 8-1 on the season, tossing a no-hitter against Pittsburgh. Kirby also finished with a 1.48 ERA. When he's not on the hill, Virginia still has good pitching, but they had some very questionable losses during this year's regular season.

The Arkansas Razorbacks' have a pitching staff of their own that will allow them to compete in this regional. The Razorbacks' staff put together an ERA of 2.63 this season, which was the third best in the SEC.

The Liberty Flames proved last season that they aren't afraid to make a little noise amongst the big schools in the tournament. Last year, the Flames eliminated the Clemson Tigers from the Columbia, SC Regional.

Bucknell will be the one team that won't be able to grab a win in Charlottesville, but the Bison will cap off a great 2014.

The Pick: The Arkansas Razorbacks shock the nationally seeded Virginia Cavaliers.


Columbia, SC Regional

1. South Carolina Gamecocks (42-16)
2. Maryland Terrapins (36-21)
3. Old Dominion Monarchs (36-24)
4. Campbell Camels (40-19)

The Gamecocks seemed to have drawn a better regional grouping than some of the nationally seeded teams. South Carolina coach Chad Holbrook has indicated that Max Shrock will play in every game, as long as he is healthy. Shrock has been a catalyst for the Gamecocks' lineup all-season long.

The Maryland Terrapins were a nuisance to some of the top programs in the ACC this season. The Terps beat both Virginia and Florida State in the ACC Tournament. 

Old Dominion is another team that's not afraid to play with the big programs. The Monarchs came close to winning the Conference USA Tournament, before losing the second game to the Rice Owls.

The Campbell Camels are mostly unheard of, but this is a team that will be out for blood. The Camels were overlooked for last year's tournament, despite winning 49 games. 

The Pick: The South Carolina Gamecocks advance by defeating the Old Dominion Monarchs.


Coral Gables, FL Regional

1. Miami (FL) Hurricanes (41-17)
2. Texas Tech Red Raiders (40-18)
3. Columbia Lions (29-18)
4. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats (26-31)

The Miami Hurricanes are trying to return to the College World Series, which used to be familiar territory. Senior Bryan Radziewski is one of the toughest pitchers in the country face, absolutely fooling hitters with his slurve pitch. 

The Texas Tech Red Raiders have shown that they can play really well but have looked mediocre at times. Their success will depend on which version of the team shows up.

The Columbia Lions were able to shut out opponents nine times this season. This team has created a lot of buzz coming out of the Ivy League, and the Coral Gables Regional hasn't been a stranger to upsets. The last time this was a regional site, the Stony Brook Seawolves shocked the world. Could the Columbia Lions be that team this season?

The Bethune-Cookman Wildcats will represent the SWAC, but they will not be able to compete in this regional.

The Pick: The Miami Hurricanes are able to avoid an upset attempt from the Columbia Lions.


Corvallis, OR Regional

1. Oregon State Beavers (42-12)
2. UNLV Rebels (35-23)
3. UC Irvine Anteaters (35-22)
4. North Dakota State Bison (25-24)

Oregon State is the number one overall national seed in the tournament, as they closed out the season ranked number one in most polls. The Beavers had the second-most stingy pitching in the country, posting an ERA of just 2.13. 

The UNLV Rebels played very well in the Mountain West this season, but I think this could be a team that could get eliminated quickly.

The UC Irvine Anteaters finished third in the underrated Big West. In order for UC Irvine to have success in the postseason, they need to get their closer, Sam Moore, the ball. Moore recorded a NCAA-high 23 saves this season.

The North Dakota Bison are the unlucky fourth seed, and I don't expect them to make any noise in this regional.

The Pick: Oregon State beats UC Irvine to advance to the Super Regionals.


Fort Worth, TX Regional

1. TCU Horned Frogs (42-15)
2. Dallas-Baptist Patriots (40-19)
3. Sam Houston State Bearkats (41-17)
4. Siena Saints (26-31)

TCU will have to fend off two teams from the state of Texas to advance. The Horned Frogs are another team that boasts a great pitching staff. TCU pitching had a collective ERA of 2.26 this season, which was the fifth-best in the country. 

The Dallas-Baptist Patriots were the winners of the Missouri Valley Tournament. The Patriots boast a very underrated offense that can produce runs quickly. Dallas-Baptist lost both games they played against TCU, and lost two-of-three against Sam Houston State early in the season.

Sam Houston State finished the season very hot, winning 17 of their last 20 games before losing in the Southland Tournament. Being eliminated from the tournament hurt the Bearkats' seeding, but they will be very relevant in this regional.

Siena will be the first team eliminated from this regional. Sorry fourth seed.

The Pick: TCU defeats Sam Houston State to advance to the next round.


Gainesville, FL Regional

1. Florida Gators (40-21)
2. Long Beach State 49ers (32-24)
3. North Carolina Tarheels (34-25)
4. College of Charleston Cougars (41-17)

The Florida Gators earned a national seed this season, winning the SEC Regular Season Title before losing in the final of the conference tournament. This team is young, but the Gators have proven that they can beat just about anybody.

Long Beach State was able to shutout opponents 10 times this season, and the 49ers finished second in the Big West. This team could be a sleeper team in this regional.

North Carolina doesn't host a regional this year, but the Tarheels still have some of the components from last season's College World Series team. North Carolina lost a lot of their pitching from last season, but the Tarheels still have some veteran bats that can produce runs.

College of Charleston won't bow out as easily as most of the fourth-seeded teams. The Cougars aren't strangers to this regional and gave Florida a very good game last go-round.

The Pick: Florida shakes off Long Beach State in this wide-open regional.


Houston, TX Regional

1. Rice Owls (41-18)
2. Texas (38-18)
3. Texas A&M Aggies (33-24)
4. George Mason Patriots (34-20)

This regional is the second that contains three teams from the state of Texas. Oddly enough, the Rice Owls are the hosts. 

Texas and Texas A&M are both young teams that played well this season, and both have a bright future ahead. The Longhorns are virtually unbeatable when they play to their potential.

George Mason isn't going to be able to compete against these three strong teams.

The Pick: The Texas Longhorns spoil the Owls' party in Houston.


Lafayette, LA Regional

1. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (53-7)
2. Mississippi State Bulldogs (37-22)
3. San Diego State Aztecs (42-19)
4. Jackson State Tigers (31-23)

Louisiana-Lafayette was simply dominant this year, winning over 50 games. This team averages over seven runs per game, and that's a tough number to top on a regular basis.

Mississippi State has one of the most talented bullpens in the entire country. The Bulldogs' relievers have proven to be the kryptonite to many good hitters in the SEC.

San Diego State and Jackson State are both capping off great seasons, but they will be in the shadows of the top two seeds, who both have the potential to advance to Omaha.

The Pick: Mississippi State beat the Cajuns in dramatic fashion.


Louisville, KY Regional

1. Louisville Cardinals (45-15)
2. Kentucky Wildcats (35-23)
3. Kansas Jayhawks (34-24)
4. Kent State Golden Flashes (36-21)

This regional looks more like a basketball tournament, but these teams can all play good baseball. Louisville is the regional host, and the Cardinals are hoping to make a repeat run to Omaha this season. 

Unfortunately for the Cardinals, the second seed is the Kentucky Wildcats. The Wildcats were explosive this season, and A.J. Reed has just been a beast this season. Reed also pitches and has an 11-2 record this season.

The Kansas Jayhawks ended their regular season on a nice streak of wins, yet they bowed out of the Big 12 Tournament in just two games. It will be interesting to see which version of Kansas comes to play.

The Kent State Golden Flashes are trying to recreate memories of 2012, when they made it all the way to Omaha in this tournament. Unfortunately for Kent State, I think the top two seeds are going to handle the field just fine.

The Pick: The Kentucky Wildcats out duel the Louisville Cardinals.


Nashville, TN Regional

1. Vanderbilt Commodores (41-18)
2. Oregon Ducks (42-18)
3. Clemson Tigers (36-23)
4. Xavier Musketeers (29-27)

The Commodores were very much in the conversation for being a national seed just a couple weeks ago. Times changed after Vanderbilt lost four of their last six games, including a two-and-done appearance in Hoover, Alabama for the SEC Tournament.

The Oregon Ducks were thought to be a top 10 team throughout some of the season but weren't able to win some key PAC-12 Series.

The Clemson Tigers went into the ACC Tournament not guaranteed a spot in the postseason, but Jack Leggett's squad found a way to win. The Tigers find themselves as one-of-three teams in this regional that have dynamic starting pitching. Daniel Gossett and Matthew Crownover have been the go-to guys for Leggett.

The Xavier Musketeers will just be overpowered. There's too many good pitchers in this regional.

The Pick: Vanderbilt holds off Clemson in multiple rubber matches.


Oxford, MS Regional

1. Ole Miss Rebels (41-18)
2. Washington Huskies (39-15-1)
3. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (36-25)
4. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (36-25)

The Ole Miss Rebels quietly turned in one of the best seasons in all of college baseball. The Rebels hit .303 as a team, which is better than any other team in the SEC. 

Washington comes into Oxford looking to spoil the Rebels' party. The Huskies have pitched very well this season, only allowing a 3.23 ERA as a group.

Georgia Tech struggled at the end of the regular season, but they were able to play well and win the ACC Tournament. This had to provide the Yellow Jackets with a confidence boost, and I think their matchup with Washington is one of the best middle-seed games in the country.

I just wish Jacksonville State would've got to go to the Columbia, SC Regional. Not everyday do you get to see the Gamecocks play the Gamecocks.

The Pick: Ole Miss fights off a thirsty Georgia Tech.


San Luis Obispo, CA Regional

1. Cal Poly Mustangs (45-10)
2. Arizona State Sun Devils (33-22)
3. Pepperdine Waves (39-16)
4. Sacramento State Hornets (39-22)

This regional contains four teams in from the west coast that have the potential to surprise everybody. Cal Poly has been a powerhouse in the Big West, but the Mustangs have looked sloppy at times.

Arizona State won nine of their last 10 games to end the 2014 season. The Sun Devils will try to carry their hot streak into Cal Poly and make up for some rough patches that cost them a chance to host a regional.

Pepperdine is a team that's not afraid to play with the big teams. The Waves finished 3-0 at the Dodgertown Classic earlier this season, defeating Southern Cal, UCLA and Houston in consecutive games.

The Sacramento State Hornets won the WAC Tournament, and will try to "upset" Cal Poly in the first game. This is a regional that's absolutely wide open.

The Pick: Pepperdine defeats Cal Poly, making several heads explode.


Stillwater, OK Regional

1. Oklahoma State Cowboys (45-16)
2. Nebraska Cornhuskers (40-19)
3. Cal State Fullerton Titans (32-22)
4. Binghamton (25-25)

Oklahoma State will try to cap off a great season by winning their regional. The Cowboys took two-of-three from TCU during the regular season, but the Horned Frogs got the last laugh when they beat the Cowboys in the Big 12 Tournament.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers were the runners-up in the Big 10 Tournament, losing to conference powerhouse Indiana. The Cornhuskers have won 13 of their last 16 games heading into Stillwater.

The Cal State Fullerton Titans come into to Stillwater riding a seven-game winning streak, including a no-hitter thrown by Justin Garza. Garza is far from the only arm that the Titans have to offer. This team has the best ERA in the country at 2.03.

Binghamton will have a tough time competing in this regional, but they are coming off winning the American East Tournament. The Bearcats only defeated one team in the regular season that made the tournament, and that team was Siena.


The Pick: Cal State Fullerton upsets Oklahoma State in Stillwater.


Tallahassee, FL Regional

1. Florida State Seminoles (43-15)
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (34-22)
3. Kennesaw State Owls (37-21)
4. Georgia Southern (39-21)

Florida State is coming off another great season, finishing first in the Atlantic Division of the ACC. The Seminoles get a lot of attention on closer Jameis Winston, but they are a solid team from top-to-bottom.

The Alabama Crimson Tide were in the driver's seat of the SEC before the Florida Gators started dominating conference opponents. The Tide face a very tough opponent in the Kennesaw State Owls in their first matchup of the regional.

Kennesaw State does a lot of things right as a baseball team. The Owls hit .301 as a team and breezed through the Atlantic Sun Tournament.

Georgia Southern is another team that hits the ball very well, blasting 59 homers as a team this season. That total was tied for the fourth best in the NCAA. 13 of those home runs came from Senior Aaron Mizell.

The Pick: Florida State fends off Alabama and advances to the Super Regionals.

Based off my picks, let's take a look at my projected Super Regional match ups:

(3) Cal State Fullerton vs. (1) Oregon State
(2) Texas vs. (1) LSU
(2) Kentucky vs. (1) Florida State
(1) Vanderbilt vs. (1) Indiana
(1) Miami (FL) vs. (1) Florida
(3) Pepperdine vs. (1) TCU
(2) Mississippi State vs. (1) Ole Miss (yes, you read that right)
(2) Arkansas vs. (1) South Carolina

Be sure to follow me on twitter @griffaldo!

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